The Last Week-Part I

This is it.

The last week of, what Warren G. Harding used to call, "normalcy." Next week the Democrats convene in Denver, and it's much too early to see if Obama can withstand a Clinton assault for the nomination. Then the Republicans gather in the Twin Cities, and, if rumours as reported by Andrea Mitchell of NBC News are true, Republicans might appoint a registered Democrat as Vice President. More on that later. But the four-day prime time love-fests are fastly approaching, then the symbolic start of the General Election, Labor Day, less than two weeks away...then the debates, then the inevitable "October Surprise"...then the Big Day. And that's the 2008 Election.

So yeah, it's a good time to finally post something.

The Democrats, tonight.

***

Obama has promised that his supporters will be the first to hear who the running-mate will be. These supporters signed up to receive a text message from the campaign with the Grand Announcement. Big money is that it'll be Joe Biden, Senator from Delaware. Change and More of the Same. When it comes to how Washington works, it's a marriage of an Amateur with an Expert. But there's pretty much no where else Obama can look. Gone are the days when the decision of who'll be #2 rested on Electoral Math and who can deliver what. (See: Kennedy-Johnson, 1960.) Now, Conventional Wisdom holds that it's who can make-up for the nominee's short-comings. McCain has hit Obama on inexperience, on not being ready to lead, on being an amateur...Obama needs to balance it out. Tim Kaine of Virginia has only been in office for three years. Evan Bayh of Indiana is a safe-choice but someone that leaves the voters with a feeling of "so-what?"

Biden brings Foreign Policy experience, his son's about to leave to Iraq...but is that what matters? Iraq's getting better. Foreign Policy isn't going to be at the top of concerns for this year's General Election. Does Obama need to remind people that he lacks the Foreign Policy know-how? Appointing Biden will be much like Bush appointing Cheney in 2000. It's the whole, I'm-not-good-on-foreign-policy-so-I'll-give-it-off-to-someone-who-is. I don't think this is a smart move by the Obama campaign. Obama successfully already hit Hillary every time she said he's not ready, that he's too inexperienced; his response was that experience means nothing without intelligence. He's right. Experience, in the guise of Cheney-Rumsfeld-Clinton, got us into Iraq. Obama needs as Vice-President someone who follows the "Change" mold. That's the message of his campaign. He needs someone that no one has seen coming, but that when he announces who it'll be, it'll hit everyone as the obvious choice. The announcement could come as early as tomorrow, and I don't think it'll be Biden. But I've been wrong before. So stay tuned.

But while the decision of who'll be #2 is surely at the top of Obama's list right now, he can't help but ask "Will they do it?" Rumours have been circulating that Clinton is ready to mount a coup on the floor of the Democratic Convention in Denver. I'll tell you what, it'll make for great TV.

But will she do it? I don't think so. I mean, I wouldn't put anything past the Clintons, but this is somewhat unthinkable. However, Drudge has been fueling the flames by putting out reports about how half of the Democratic congressional delegation at the Convention will vote for Hillary during roll-call, and today, it even made the news that Hillary supporter, Sen. Diane Feinstein of California won't be attending the convention due to an injury--seemingly good news for Obama. This is the story-line before the Convention. Will Hillary do it? Will she launch a coup, a revolution on the Floor to prevent the Coronation of Barack Hussein Obama? I don't think so.

So it's a big week for Obama. The veep stakes are about to end with a final decision, and the Convention is about to begin. He'll return on Saturday to Springfield, Illinois where he first announced that he was running for President back in January (February?) of last year. He'll be joined this time by his vice presidential running-mate. And Rev. Wright, like that first time, will be at a secret, undisclosed location.

Things aren't looking that bad for Obama. He'll get the post-convention bounce that all the nominees get immediately after the convention ends--the question will be how big?

***

The Electoral College:

If the election were held today (taking in the numbers from state-by-state polls):

• Obama: 264, McCain: 180; Too-Close-To-Call: 94


• Strong Leaners: Obama: 214; McCain 120


• Lean: Obama: 50; McCain: 58

Obama's well within striking distance of 270. When the pageantry of the veep decisions and the conventions end, strategy for both camps begin. It's all about getting to 270, everyone knows that. National polls don't matter. It's local. All politics is local. It's getting the toss-up states to go for you by even the leanest of margins. And Obama is much closer to 270 than McCain is.

And those toss-ups: Florida, Virgina, Ohio, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, Nevada, and surprisingly, Alaska.

My predictions...and God knows I'm bad with Math:

• Virginia: McCain 13 EV


• Ohio: Obama 20 EV


• Missouri: Obama 11 EV


• Montana: McCain 3EV


• North Dakota: McCain 3EV


• Colorado: Obama 9EV


• Nevada: McCain 5EV


• Alaska: McCain 3EV


• Florida:.....I think it's gonna be McCain 27 EV

So...

Obama's: 264 + my predictions: 304 Electoral Votes.

McCain's: 180 + my predictions: 234 Electoral Votes.

And that's why Obama is smiling all the time...

New Post

...Coming Soon.

Wrong Again

Well we've all been wrong this year. Surprises everywhere. No one ever expected how thrilling, fun, unexpected this primary campaign season has turned out to be.

I don't think the General Election can ever compare to the Primary Election Season of 2008.

And the Conventional Wisdom has been wrong from the beginning until the end.

And I'll admit it, I've been wrong many times this season. IT just goes to show that no one knows what's really going on. No matter how many metrics, or trends, or narratives are created, at the end, the American Voter will decide how the season unfolds.

So I guess I was wrong with propelling Obama to quit. He's on the verge. No one ever saw Indiana being so tight for Clinton...As of post-time, the difference is only 20,000 votes.

It's too close to call...

Why Obama Should Quit

DALLAS--

In American political lore we're enamored by the possibility of the underdog defeating the establishment.

I think that's because America still sees itself as the ultimate underdog in the world. But we're the underdog that wins. We're noble and good, and we're faced with a world full of evil tyrants who cause pain, agony, despair. And we'll use our military for humanitarian needs and nation-building when necessary and we'll raise money and donate, and provide food and medicine, and still wave the flag of America and all that it represents. Don't you forget it, no matter what, we're still the United States of America—the last best chance the world has.

It takes a special kind of person to lead the United States of America. We want Saints not Sinners. We want Angels not Demons.

And that's why in some corners we wanted Barack Obama. He seemed so unlike anything we've ever had. He is so unlike anything we've ever had. The press fell in love with him. New voters all across America fell in love and packed stadiums nationwide, from the metropolitan coastal cities to cities in the heartland which still believed in a place called hope. He was it. He brought people from across the political spectrum and promised them that "Yes, we can." That yes, we can bring about change; that yes, there was a better way. And people believed him. They still do. I still do.

But then we saw Rev. Wright who came out of his self-imposed exile this weekend and brought his controversy back to the front of the political fore. Jeremiah Wright was a reminder of the unfounded fears that some Americans have about Barack Obama. They see him as something alien, they think he's a Muslim, there's a church that put on its sign "Obama-Osama: Are They Brothers?" Americans fear what they do not know. And it didn't help that Obama is seen as unpatriotic. Making a point causes him to lose political traction. Why won't he just wear the flag lapel? And why did Michelle Obama say that for the first time ever she's proud of her country and that America in 2008 is a mean country? These are things you do not say when your husband is running for President of the United States. Not wearing the flag lapel is something that you do not do if you're running for President of the United States.

But he seemed to overcome it all. In fact, in today's NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll, Obama still leads Clinton nationwide 46-43% (one must take into account that there was an oversample of Black voters in this poll).But he hasn't won in a while. Yes, he still leads among delegates, among the popular vote and among most states won. But he lost in Pennsylvania and he lost badly. Indiana, neighboring his home state of Illinois, is now in play and Hillary seems to be a contender there. North Carolina down the road may follow South Carolina and give Obama a win. In a previous post I wrote that Hillary should quit not because she was losing but because she was going to gain traction and momentum and win. She has. There's going to be no stopping Hillary now, no matter what. It's too close. This reflects what I wrote in another previous post reflecting on why he can't put her away, and all those factors remain. The Clinton Political War Machine is a force to be reckoned with. Obama still seems too much of a lightweight, too much of an amateur to go against the Clintonistas.

And Obama isn't gaining in the demographics that he needs to win. His sub-constituency coalition is falling apart. He's not targeting the right voters. In South Carolina he was winning among White Men. In union-strong Pennsylvania he lost them. Lately, he's only winning among Blacks, and among the more educated Democratic primary voters. Hillary's winning everything else.

It seems counter-intuitive to suggest that the frontrunner quit. A frontrunner hasn't faced an internal challenge this strong and this heated for the nomination in a while. Hillary believes that this is rightfully hers. She believed that she worked too hard, waited so long and poured so much money and heart and tears (oh the tears!) into this that it's not fair that it's being taken away from her. She's going to stay in this. Dean can't make her get out no matter how much he's telling the super-delegates to have this wrapped up by mid-June. Hillary's expanding, there's no question about it, and she's out to swift-boat Obama before the Republicans get to him. Say what you want about Republicans but we're great at winning elections. Hillary and Bill always knew this and they've always tried to be Republicanesque in how they conduct a viable electoral strategy. Hillary went on O'Reilly tonight for God's sake…

Obama's inability to put her away casts doubt in his ability to win a general election campaign against John McCain this November. McCain gets independents, the Republicans are going to come out for him, and he may even get a substantial Democrat vote. And this is the reason why Obama should quit. Give it to Hillary. McCain-Clinton. Nothing will bring out Republicans in droves to vote for McCain than to have a Clinton on the ballot. They'll come out strong. And in every head-to-head matchup McCain beats Clinton. McCain ties Obama. McCain beats Clinton is the operative event though. It's in Obama's best interest to win the nomination clean and easily. He already fought for this one. Giving this to Hillary makes him noble, makes him a saint, makes him an angel, makes him a gentleman. He showed deference and the party is never going to forget that. He brought the Democratic Party together again. To say nothing of the possibility that McCain might not run for re-election because of his age in 2012. Obama's still a young man. He can wait. The Democratic Party, historically, never forgives its losers. It's not the era of Adlai Stevenson anymore where he kept running over-and-over again. The Democrats give you one chance and you're out. Give Hillary this one. Give it to her and she'll be out and retreat into the hallow chambers of the United States Senate and the Clinton name will become nothing more than an afterthought. Give Obama 4 years to rebuild, regroup, and re-inspire. He'll be stronger in 4 years, he'll be ready. He won't be making amateur mistakes and he'll be the leader that we all expect him to be, that we all know he can be.

So Sen. Obama give it to Sen. Clinton. Her new narrative is the one in which she states ad nauseum that she's the only one that can defeat Sen. McCain. Show America that she's wrong. Show America that ultimately, she's not a winner, but a loser. Show the Democrats how their inability to decide cost them yet another election. Be gracious. Be ready for your turn.

The Long Campaign Continues

It's been nearly a month since I last wrote, and at the end, nothing has changed.

Yes, we've had the revelation that Sen. Obama's spiritual guide, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright apparently asks God to damn America.

And yes, we've had Sen. Clinton's Bosnia fairytale (as Times columnist Frank Rich dubs it)—you know the one where she swears she (and Sinbad and Sheryl Crow) was under sniper-fire while visiting troops in Bosnia during her tenure as first lady. While this had been debunked months ago, the former first lady and former presumptive Democratic nominee for the presidency continued to spew such fibs. It took the CBS Evening News to go back to the pool video and show that Sen. Clinton indeed had a safe landing. She arrived in Bosnia with Chelsea. That CBS Evening News clip was promulgated by Drudge linking to the YouTube video of it. It got more views than Wright's fiery sermons.

It fit the narrative: Clinton's a liar. And isn't that a narrative that fits so well with that family that we're all too familiar with? It's her "I did not have sexual relations with that woman." It harkens back to the narrative that the Bush campaign pinged on Vice-President Gore back in 2000: Al Gore swore he invented the internet.

And everyone's talking about Bosnia and the Clinton campaign is saying that she misspoke and that it's all due to sleep deprivation…this coming from the candidate who said that she's the most prepared to answer that red phone at, yes, 3 in the morning.

And everyone's forgotten about Wright and about the watershed speech that Obama delivered concerning race. That speech, one of the greatest political speeches in a generation, will be only remembered by simple sound bites: "I am the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas" and "I can no more disown him [Wright] than I can my white grandmother - a woman who helped raise me, a woman who sacrificed again and again for me, a woman who loves me as much as she loves anything in this world, but a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe."

That's what happens when you schedule an important and long overdue speech on race in America, in the morning. Rookie mistake.

March wasn't a good month for either Democratic Candidate or the Democratic Party itself. It was full of gaffes and indecision.

***

But where do we go from here?

Clinton has said that she's not going to pull-out. Obviously. She's said that she was going to wait until the people have spoken. Yes, how noble of her. She was going to wait for Pennsylvania…and Puerto Rico to vote. June 3^rd is the last election. DNC Chairman Howard Dean wants this rapped up by July 1^st. But…Clinton spoke to the Washington Post today and said that she wasn't going to rest until Michigan and Florida are counted (where was she when the DNC disenfranchised millions of voters last fall?) and that if it had to come to it, well, that's what the Credentials Committee at the Convention is for. The Credentials Committee! She's going to see this through the very end and take the Democratic National Convention in Denver hostage. She will not give up. She will not surrender. Even if they count Florida and Michigan and even if she wins Pennsylvania, which she's likely to do, it doesn't add up. The delegate count just doesn't add up. It's not going to put her over the top. It's not going to change anything. She'll make the argument that she wins the big states and that she's won more recently—this even though today's revelation that because of the Texas "prima-caucus," Obama actually won there.

And that's the big problem. Bill Maher on Friday's show asked what the big deal was for Clinton to stay in and to allow the process to naturally unfold—to let the voters decide, to make every vote count. The process never unfolds naturally. No one likes a split convention. A couple of years ago I wrote an essay in which I compared the 1968 presidential election to every presidential we've had since. This paragraph is pertinent as to why the Democrats need a nominee by Convention time:

In the battle between perception and reality, it is also important to note the changes and evolutions in nominating conventions. Where 1952 was seen as the first televised convention, 1968 was the first dramatic one. Image-makers not only had to deal with a candidate's image, but also, with the image of the convention itself. Whereas in 1968 at Miami Beach, the Republicans presented a convention of unity and order, the convention at Chicago was anything but. Theodore White stated that "At Chicago, for the first time, the most delicate process of American politics was ruptured by violence, the selection of Presidents stained with blood." Americans were appalled at what was occurring on the streets in Chicago, and what was occurring inside the convention hall. Those watching Walter Cronkite's coverage on the CBS Television Network saw a young Dan Rather being punched on the floor of the Convention Hall and taken down by Convention security, "Cronkite then delivered one of those sound bites that get aired again and again for years to come: 'I think we've got a bunch of thugs in there, Dan'." Then and there, the Democrats' hope for a victory in 1968 ended. The Convention was in such a state of chaos that President Johnson—officially leader of the Democratic Party—did not attend the convention. In 1980, coupled with the important and salient background events which were occurring, there was discontent inside Madison Square Garden where the Democratic National Convention was held, after the sitting President, Jimmy Carter, was challenged by Sen. Edward Kennedy for the presidency, and at the end, we saw the famous image captured by television cameras which displayed the delicate waltz which took place by which Carter and Kennedy never shook hands on the convention stage. This event was seized by the pundits on television and re-played over-and-over again as a sign of disunity in the party. In 1992, it was the Republican's turn to seem extreme and not united. At the Astrodome in Houston, Texas, what was supposed to be a rousing night for Ronald Reagan's last speech at the Convention was split, with Reagan's speech being pushed to 11:00 p.m. and Pat Buchanan taking the 10:00 p.m. primetime hour. This push to a 10:00 p.m. slot made by the networks, especially NBC, cost Bush and his convention the image that they wanted to portray. NBC's executive producer, Bill Wheatley recalls that, "On two separate instances we saw them hold the convention waiting for us to come on the air…We were still in our opening when they introduced [Quayle]. There was this tremendous roar, and Tom [Brokaw] just picked it up." The one that really hurt Bush was Buchanan's speech which "after its opening applause lines for the nominee, went on to summon not only Buchanan's own following but the entire Republican Party to a 'religious war' against gays, inner-city toughs and the likes of Hillary Clinton." That same year at Madison Square Garden, the 1992 Democratic National Convention was perfectly orchestrated, went off without any serious gaffes, and was up-lifting and optimistic. The Republicans came back in 2000 and at Philadelphia, gave key-note speech slots to the likes of Colin Powell, John McCain, Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf, Jr., and Condoleezza Rice. This created the image of a new, moderate Republican Party going along the theme of "Compassionate Conservatism" which Bush wanted to create. On the other hand, at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, there were undercurrents which pointed towards disunity in the party, when Bill Clinton was pushed to a Monday night speech, and then ignored for the rest of the convention. This went in line with the Gore Campaign wanting to distance themselves from Clinton for the General Election, and which many consider might have hurt Gore in his quest for the presidency.

Now I'm not saying that the Democratic Convention in Denver in 2008 will be just like the Democratic Convention in Chicago in 1968. I don't expect violence but I do expect political blood being spilt if Hillary Rodham Clinton takes this to the Credentials Committee and more so, if the Super-Delegates go contrary to whom the pledged Delegates chose. It would be a nomination stolen. If the Super-Delegates indeed overturn the voice of the people, if they overturn the people's choice, then what we will have will be the disenfranchisement anew of Democrats and a party uncontrollable. They'll be yelling bloody murder in the streets of Denver. They denied the first viable Black man the nomination for president of the United States. Obama's leading in the delegate count, most states won, and most votes cast. The Super-Delegates will have no choice but to re-affirm the pledged delegates, which then calls into question the reasoning for the Super-Delegates: if it's just to rubber-stamp and to be redundant…what's the point of their existence?

If Democrat's can't run their own convention, can't control their own people, what gives the American people the confidence that they can run a country?

And I echo David Brooks' belief (another Times columnist) who says that the reason that Hillary Clinton needs to get out is not because she's weak, but because she's strong. And yes, it's a little nonsequitor. Put aside the fact that in today's Gallup tracking poll Obama's lead over Clinton is now at 10-points, with her winning Pennsylvania and a handful of others, she'll continue to make the case that there's momentum for her now, that people want her in it, and that she'll be there for the people. There won't be any stopping her. She'll think that she's it, that she can turn this ship around, that she can salvage this ship who hit the iceberg long ago. It's delusional. She'll take this to the Convention and the whole world will watch what a split convention is. Can you just picture it? There might be walk-outs! Supporters of the losing candidate leaving the hall and the image replayed ad-nauseum on TV for everyone to see. Juxtapose that with McCain's convention. It'll be neat. It'll be orderly. It'll be just like the 2000 Republican love-fest in Philadelphia.

 

This was supposed to be the year of the Democratic Restoration. The economy is going south, the war has hit the 4,000^th American casualty, and the sitting Republican president remains unpopular. This was supposed to be the year of the Democratic Restoration.

It's amazing but the Democrats found a way to blow it again.

624787

John McCain has released his first General Election campaign ad, and wow, it's something else.

He looks poised, ready, and presidential. And more than that, it introduces a number that we're all going to become too familiar with as the General Election campaign begins--once the Democrats of course settle their mess. That number: 624787.

He Can’t Put Her Away

She's alive.

Hillary Rodham Clinton declares that momentum is now with her. She arrived in Washington this morning at 3am (it's always 3am) and three hours later she was preparing to undergo the "Full Ginsburg"—so-called when former Lewinsky attorney William Ginsburg showed up on all 5 Sunday-morning shows a decade ago. In the morning she declared that Obama's momentum had ended, that people were now taking a strong and hard look at both candidates and decided that she was the best choice. David Gregory on Today asked Sen. Obama, "Why are the voters reluctant to vote for you?"

It's turned.

Why can't he put her away? Why can't the knight slay the dragon? He's had his chance. He could've done it after Iowa, He could've done it after South Carolina, and he was expected to do it last night.

The media is setting expectations. They're dying to pounce on Clinton. They've been smelling blood for eight weeks now and are trying to rid themselves of Clinton. After SNL picked this up upon its return to the airwaves it became political narrative. Clinton used it at the MSNBC debate last week and another SNL opener this weekend re-affirmed that image. She didn't cry this time. But she did play the role of victim. She kept on pushing the story line that the media was too negative, that it was too bullying. On his campaign plane en route back home to Chicago, Obama acknowledged this saying that media portrayals of Hillary hurt him and help her. The base loves the victim of crass bullying. Obama said that she won vis-à-vis the "kitchen sink" strategy—throwing everything but the kitchen sink at him. And she did.

Clinton won last night on national security. Those who were late-deciders went over to Clinton's camp when it came time to vote. The only narrative that was really effective was the narrative of national security, yes, the 3am call. She won using a Republican tactic. It goes to show that security is, at the end, a factor in voting—even in the Democratic base. If Hillary won on national security, then in a face-to-face general, McCain will beat Hillary on national security.

General Election: There's no way that Hillary wins Texas; McCain will take that one. Ohio will be tricky. Hillary will win Ohio running against NAFTA and promising for economic change. McCain will face difficulty defending NAFTA and globalization in Ohio.

But going back to the basics: Why can't Obama take her out? Is it that Hillary really really really wants to win? Is it that from now on they'll throw everything at him to see what sticks? It's her tenacity. It's the fact that nevermind his many campaign faux pas, she is married to the best political strategist in the Democratic Party.

Obama's impotence in taking Clinton out casts questions as to his viability and whether or not he could mount a successful General Election campaign against Sen. McCain. These questions arise even though in General Election matchups, he performs better against McCain than Clinton does—McCain beats Clinton handily in both the electoral college map projection (I can't wait till we start talking about the map) and in national poll numbers. Obama gives McCain a run for his money.

But while the Democrats are fighting, McCain is having lunch with President Bush at the White House. It's a three-way race for November, and McCain now has the Republican National Committee and its powerful political apparatus as a branch office of John McCain 2008. His campaign now has an influx of at least $30 Million from the RNC while Clinton and Obama continue spending money competing against each other, drying up their respective donor bases and putting them at a general monetary disadvantage for the fall campaign.

I received this mass mailing email from John McCain this afternoon:

As we come to the end of our party's primary contest, we begin what will certainly be a spirited and hard-fought campaign against the Democratic nominee. In November, Americans will have a clear choice to make. And I intend to fight as hard as I can to make it very clear that I am the candidate with the experience and leadership to serve as our commander in chief from day one. (Emphasis his.)

From Day One. This is the same argument that Hillary makes against Obama. The more successful she is at making this argument, the more at a disadvantage Obama will be in a General matchup against McCain. Hillary and Obama seem to be oblivious to the fact that the grand prize in their eyes should be to wrestle the White House away from a Republican. They're more preoccupied on wrestling the White House away from one another.

 

This from Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe this afternoon, coming from out of all places, Facebook:

The task for the Clinton campaign yesterday was clear. In order to have a plausible path to the nomination, they needed to score huge delegate victories and cut into our lead. They failed. It's clear, though, that Senator Clinton wants to continue an increasingly desperate, increasingly negative -- and increasingly expensive -- campaign to tear us down.…The chatter among pundits may have gotten better for the Clinton campaign after last night, but by failing to cut into our lead, the math -- and their chances of winning -- got considerably worse. Today, we still have a lead of more than 150 delegates, and there are only 611 pledged delegates left to win in the upcoming contests. (Emphasis mine.)

The argument is that it's all about the math. Obama needs fewer delegates to clinch the nomination than she does. It's as simple as that. How do we get there though? Is it going to be a drawn-out struggle for supremacy? Will we go all the way to Puerto Rico in June until the Democrats have a nominee?

Howard Dean showed up on Hardball yesterday claiming that the DNC is ready to have every vote counted, every delegate allotted for. Today Michigan and Florida, the states sans delegates whose voices were muted by the DNC were given a second chance: You can run another primary or another caucus to select your delegates…but it's going to cost you. (In Florida, such a cost would be around $8 Million.)

The math is what's going to stop her. Or rather, I should choose my words more carefully: it's what conventional wisdom now states should stop her. This from the AP's Ron Fournier:

Obama began Tuesday with an 11-race winning streak and a lead in the delegate chase in The Associated Press count, 1,386-1,276. His margin was larger, 1,187-1,035 among pledged delegates chosen in primaries and caucuses.

Clinton has little chance of closing the gap because Democrats allocate most of their delegates proportionally; meaning the loser of a close contest earns nearly as many delegates as the winner. Even as she declared victory in Ohio, Clinton knew that Tuesday's results were unlikely to draw her much closer to Obama.

It doesn't get any better for Clinton after Tuesday. Just for kicks, pencil the New York senator in for landslide victories in Wyoming, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky plus narrow victories in Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana and South Dakota scenarios that give her a hefty benefit of the doubt and then some. And what happens?

She still trails Obama.

She trails Obama.

 

The Democrats were supposed to win this one. An unpopular Republican President in the White House was the God-sent for the Democratic Restoration. They were supposed to win it. The American people say that they're tired of the war, that the country is headed in the wrong direction, that the economy is taking a slump, that they want something new in the White House…and yet, the Clinton-Obama feud has produced one clear winner: John McCain. People are voting on security. People recognize that they cannot leave Iraq. Clinton tells people that Obama's message of Hope is nothing more than empty words and emptier promises. Clinton's continuation in the race shows that Obama, now matter how hard he struggles can not defeat the establishment. The Politicos always win. Again, Americans in poll after poll want change. In poll after poll say that they are not happy with the way Congress is doing its job. Yet they'll vote for their incumbent representatives and retain the composition of Congress. Americans say that they want a Democratic President in the White House and not a Republican one. And yet, in poll after poll, John McCain beats both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The only difference is by what degree.

We are a schizophrenic people.

Junior Super Tuesday 1

Talking Points:

• Hillary will live to fight another day: She's likely to win her first primary in almost a month tonight in Ohio; Texas and Rhode Island are incredibly close
• Obama, I predict will likely win Texas and Rhode Island, however by a slim margin
• Obama: It's all about the delegates. They'll make the argument that no matter how close their popular margin is, Obama's delegates make any Clinton effort extremely ineffective
• Texas: Clinton is winning among Hispanics, Women, and those who made up their minds late in the effort
• NAFTA becoming a big issue with the Obama campaign getting hurt by having his economic advisors apparently talking to Canadian officials trying to calm them down on any possible NAFTA modifications: Those who are against NAFTA are going for Clinton (Can you still believe we're talking about this 14 years later)
• McCain will clinch the nomination tonight; soon the McCain Campaign will take charge of the RNC and use their campaign apparatus
• Huckabee will most likely drop out as the week progresses

In the words of Brit Hume: "This is kind of fun..."